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New York Jets QB Aaron Rodgers. Danielle Parhizkaran / USA TODAY NETWORK

NFL futures: Favorites to win Comeback Player of the Year ... and our surprise pick

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated 5/10/24

This time last year, Damar Hamlin was likely in the -750 range to win Comeback Player of the Year, and Joe Flacco came out of nowhere down the stretch to take the honors thanks to his brief success with Cleveland.

This award has been dominated by quarterbacks of late, with six straight winners being QBs. It's not always coming back from an injury, either. This award could be considered Most Improved Player in some respects when you consider the seasons that fueled Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill to win in recent years.

We've touched on a few of the NFL award markets already, and now we head to CPOY to see where our bets may be best placed.

2024-25 NFL Comeback Player of the Year betting favorites

Aaron Rodgers (+100)
Joe Burrow (+200)
Kirk Cousins (+500)
Anthony Richardson (+750)
Russell Wilson (+1200)
Deshaun Watson (+1500)
Nick Chubb (+1800)
Daniel Jones (+2500)
Justin Herbert (+2500)
Tank Dell (+2800)

We have some understandable favorites at the top of this list. Aaron Rodgers played just a few snaps for the Jets before tearing his Achilles, and the Jets are still all-in for this year with a presumed healthy Rodgers on tap.

If he plays like we know he's capable of and leads the Jets to the postseason, it seems likely he wins. However, +100 doesn't quite get us going, and neither does Joe Burrow, who has already won this award, at +200.

NFL futures: Offensive Player of the Year odds and our two favorite picks

Russell Wilson most certainly checks the box of a guy who could come back from being bad, a foundation for a win we have seen from Geno Smith just two years ago.

We do like the Pittsburgh angle here with their QB, but what if we opt for an even better price?

Our favorite bet

Justin Fields (+4000)

This one is out there. You know it, we know it. But come on, it's the middle of May, and we want to have a bit of fun in this futures market.

Pittsburgh can claim Russell Wilson is their starter already all they want, but in what world is it best for the Steelers long-term to trot out Wilson who has looked cooked the past two seasons.

Fields is far younger, and when he's been healthy, he's been dynamic. He makes amazing plays with his legs, he can throw, and if Chicago did not own Carolina's first-round pick, we have a feeling Fields is still a Bear heading into 2024.

The path to this win is Fields winning the job out of camp and showing what he can do as a true dual-threat quarterback. If he has a big year and helps Pittsburgh to the playoffs, he checks off a massive narrative box as a thrown-away-quarterback-turned-franchise-starter. We've seen that win this award before.

At 40-1, count us in for a few bucks.

Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use.

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