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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers: Analysis, Comparison, Prediction
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

After a disappointing early exit in the 2023 playoffs, where they fell to the 8th-seed Miami Heat in the first round, the Milwaukee Bucks were determined to bounce back stronger. Making significant moves during the offseason, including the acquisition of Damian Lillard, the Bucks underwent a transformation that propelled them to the 3rd seed in the Eastern Conference with an impressive 49-33 record in 2023-24. Spearheaded by the formidable presence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, although sidelined by injury at the start of the series, the Bucks are poised to reclaim their status as contenders in the postseason. 

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers emerge as a surprise force in the Eastern Conference alongside the Orlando Magic. With a solid 47-35 record, securing the 6th seed, the Pacers are led by the dynamic playmaking of Tyrese Haliburton. Their rise to prominence presents a formidable challenge to the Bucks, particularly considering their vulnerability on defense. Furthermore, the Pacers will be without Ben Mathurin for the remainder of the season, further complicating their playoff aspirations.

Update: Per the latest report, Giannis Antetokounmpo will miss 2-4 weeks, which means he will probably miss the whole series. As we look at the schedule, Game 6 and Game 7 would be played on May 2nd and May 4th, which means he could play in those two games if he returns earlier from the calf injury. 

Bucks vs. Pacers Head-to-Head:

2023-24 Regular Season: Bucks vs. Pacers 1-4

All-Time Playoffs Series: Bucks vs. Pacers 0-2

Starting Lineup

Milwaukee Bucks: Damian Lillard, Patrick Beverley, Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo*, Brook Lopez

Indiana Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner

Even though Giannis will probably miss the first five games in this series, the Bucks still have two incredible scorers in Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton. Even with the loss of Antetokoumpo, Milwaukee should still be in a more favorable position to take the series, as Lillard has averaged season-best numbers of 29.9 points, 7.6 assists, and 4.3 rebounds in 8 games without the Greek Freak. 

On the Pacers' side, the spotlight shines on Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam. Haliburton, the dynamic young guard, has been the engine driving the Pacers' offense this season. Averaging an impressive 20.1 points, 10.9 assists, and 3.9 rebounds per game in 69 appearances, Haliburton's playmaking ability and scoring prowess have been instrumental in the Pacers' success. Yet, after the All-Star break, Haliburton's production dipped slightly, coinciding with a drop in offensive output for the team. As such, the Pacers will look to Haliburton to regain his form and lead the charge in the playoffs.

Additionally, Pascal Siakam, acquired at the trade deadline, has provided a significant boost to the Pacers' lineup. Averaging 21.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game in 41 appearances for the Pacers, Siakam's versatility and scoring punch have added another dimension to the team's offense. His ability to stretch the floor, attack the basket, and play lockdown defense will be crucial for the Pacers' success in the playoffs.

*As Giannis will likely be sidelined for the whole series, Bobby Portis will fill the void in the Bucks' starting lineup.

Advantage: Milwaukee Bucks

Bench

Milwaukee Bucks: Malik Beasley, Andre Jackson, Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder, Danilo Gallinari, Bobby Portis, MarJon Beauchamp

Indiana Pacers: TJ McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Doug McDermott, Obi Toppin, Jalen Smith, Isaiah Jackson

When comparing the benches of the Milwaukee Bucks and the Indiana Pacers, the advantage tilts in favor of the Pacers, who showcase a youthful, energetic, and versatile lineup of players capable of making significant contributions on both ends of the floor.

In contrast, the Milwaukee Bucks' bench features a mix of veteran presence and youthful potential. While players like Malik Beasley, Jae Crowder, and Danilo Gallinari bring experience and scoring ability, there are concerns about their consistency and defensive capabilities. Furthermore, the Bucks have two young and inexperienced players in Andre Jackson and MarJon Beauchamp, whose contributions may be limited in high-stakes playoff situations.

The Indiana Pacers' bench is brimming with young talent, led by the likes of TJ McConnell, Ben Sheppard, and Obi Toppin. McConnell's tenacity and playmaking prowess, coupled with Sheppard's scoring ability and Toppin's athleticism, provide the Pacers with a potent combination of skills and versatility. Additionally, players like Doug McDermott and Jalen Smith add depth and firepower to the Pacers' second unit, giving them multiple options to exploit mismatches and create scoring opportunities.

Overall, the Pacers' bench depth, highlighted by their young and energetic players, gives them a significant advantage over the Bucks. With a versatile lineup capable of making an impact on both ends of the floor, the Pacers' bench could prove to be a difference-maker in the Eastern Conference first-round matchup.

Advantage: Indiana Pacers

Doc Rivers vs. Rick Carlisle

Doc Rivers took the helm of the Milwaukee Bucks midway through the season following the dismissal of rookie coach Adrian Griffin. Griffin's departure came amidst a solid performance by the Bucks, boasting an impressive 30-13 record and securing the second-place standing in the conference. Nonetheless, Rivers' arrival failed to significantly alter the team's trajectory.

Despite Rivers' extensive coaching experience and championship pedigree, his tenure with the Bucks has been marked by inconsistency and struggles to replicate the earlier success achieved under Griffin's leadership. The Bucks managed to muster only a modest 17-19 record under Rivers' guidance, raising questions about his ability to navigate the challenges of the postseason.

In contrast, Rick Carlisle has been instrumental in shaping the Indiana Pacers into a competitive force, exceeding expectations for the season. With a championship under his belt from his tenure with the Dallas Mavericks in 2011, Carlisle brings a wealth of experience and tactical acumen to the table.

Under his leadership, the Pacers have showcased resilience and cohesion, consistently competing at a high level despite facing adversity throughout the season. Carlisle's strategic acumen and ability to maximize the potential of his players have been evident in the Pacers' performances, positioning them as a formidable opponent in the upcoming playoff series.

While both coaches possess experience and pedigree, Rivers' inability to effect significant change in the Bucks' performance casts doubt on his impact in the upcoming playoff series. In contrast, Carlisle's steady leadership, proven track record, and ability to adapt to various challenges give the Pacers a distinct advantage in the coaching department for the upcoming playoff series.

Advantage: Indiana Pacers

Bucks Advantages

The Bucks boast the best player in the series in Damian Lillard. Giannis, if healthy at some point, and Lillard, an elite scorer, and playmaker, form a formidable duo capable of dominating games on both ends of the floor. Their combination of scoring, playmaking, and defensive prowess poses a significant challenge for the Pacers to contain.

Additionally, the Bucks addressed some of their defensive deficiencies with the acquisition of Patrick Beverley. Known for his tenacity and defensive prowess, Beverley is expected to be tasked with containing Tyrese Haliburton, the Pacers' primary playmaker and offensive engine. His presence adds a new dimension to the Bucks' defense and provides a reliable option to match up against the Pacers' key players.

Furthermore, the Bucks boast a roster filled with veteran players with proven playoff experience and championship pedigree. Players like Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Jae Crowder have been through the rigors of postseason basketball and know what it takes to succeed on the biggest stage. Their leadership, composure, and ability to perform in clutch moments will be invaluable assets for the Bucks throughout the series.

Moreover, the Bucks hold home-court advantage in the series, providing them with a significant boost in front of their home crowd. The atmosphere at the Fiserv Forum, coupled with the Bucks' familiarity with their home court, could tilt the balance in their favor in crucial moments of the series.

Finally, the Bucks present a challenging individual matchup for the Pacers across the board. With talented and versatile players at every position, the Bucks have the ability to exploit mismatches and capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. Whether it's exploiting size advantages in the paint or utilizing perimeter shooting, the Bucks have the personnel to create problems for the Pacers defensively.

Pacers Advantages

Firstly, the Pacers demonstrated their dominance over the Bucks during the regular season, winning four out of five matchups. This success speaks volumes about Indiana's ability to match up effectively against Milwaukee and exploit their weaknesses. Offensively, the Pacers present a challenge for the Bucks, particularly from beyond the arc. Milwaukee's perimeter defense may struggle to contain Indiana's sharpshooters, creating openings for the Pacers to capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

Furthermore, the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo in the majority of the series presents a significant opportunity for the Pacers to gain an advantage. Without their MVP-caliber player on the court, the Bucks may find themselves vulnerable and in need of stealing a game on the road to maintain their competitiveness in the series. This provides the Pacers with a window of opportunity to assert their dominance and establish momentum early on.

Moreover, the Pacers boast the coaching expertise of Rick Carlisle, widely regarded as one of the best tacticians in the league. Carlisle's strategic acumen and ability to make timely adjustments have been instrumental in the Pacers' success throughout the season. His presence on the sidelines provides Indiana with a valuable asset and a tactical advantage over the Bucks.

Additionally, the Pacers possess a deeper and more productive bench compared to their counterparts. With contributors like TJ McConnell, Doug McDermott, and Obi Toppin, Indiana's bench unit provides a significant boost in terms of depth and production. This depth allows the Pacers to maintain a high level of performance even when their starters are off the court, giving them a crucial edge over the Bucks in the rotation battle.

Who Is The Best Team In The First Round?

While the Milwaukee Bucks may face some initial challenges, particularly with the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo in most games, their overall talent, experience, and depth should ultimately propel them past the youthful and inexperienced Indiana Pacers.

With Giannis expected to return to action in early May, the Bucks might have their MVP-caliber player back on the court, providing them with a significant boost in both offense and defense. His presence alone is enough to tilt the scales in favor of the Bucks and overpower the Pacers' relatively inexperienced roster.

While the Pacers have shown their capability to compete and even defeat the Bucks during the regular season, the playoffs present a different challenge altogether. The intensity and pressure of postseason basketball often favor teams with seasoned veterans and proven stars, areas where the Bucks hold a distinct advantage over the Pacers.

Therefore, despite the potential for a competitive series, the Bucks are well-positioned to emerge victorious and advance to the next round. With their superior talent, experience, and the hopeful return of Giannis, the Bucks should ultimately overpower the Pacers and secure a 4-2 series victory.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers 4-2

This article first appeared on Fadeaway World and was syndicated with permission.

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